How AI helps making offshore evacuation decisions with 60% greater confidence

In the ever-evolving landscape of the oil and gas industry, staying ahead of environmental risks is not just a matter of regulatory compliance but a critical necessity to safeguard both assets and human lives. As climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of storms, the need for precise and reliable weather forecasting has never been more urgent. And just now, our innovative AI forecasting technology is transforming how one of the planet's largest oil & gas companies predicts the impact and timing of storms, leading to significant financial savings and enhanced safety measures. 

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Making Evacuation Decisions Significantly Easier with AI

With our unique AI approach we achieved a remarkable 60% improvement in predicting the exact timing and duration of storms. This level of precision is unprecedented and is significantly enhancing the confidence in decision-making processes related to storm preparations. With the ability to predict storm impacts with greater accuracy, our customer is now equipped to make informed decisions about necessary precautions, including the timing and necessity of evacuations, thus minimizing costly downtime and ensuring the safety of employees and assets. 

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The Problem with Conventional Storm Forecasting

Historically, the oil and gas industry has relied on forecasts from providers such as StormGeo and Tomorrow.io to predict offshore storm risks. However, these forecasts are often biased and come with limitations in resolution and a wide and unstable confidence interval, making them less reliable for critical decision-making. ‍

‍The direct economic impact of unplanned operational downtime can reach up to $500,000 a day, not to mention the safety concerns and cost of evacuations themselves.

The Solution: Automatic Multivariate Calibration

We have addressed these challenges with our unique AI-driven approach to calibrating existing weather forecasts. Unlike traditional models, which typically poorly estimate the severity of extreme weather events, Tangent's multivariate calibration model captures a vast array of nonlinear relationships, including actual measurements and forecasts for wind, wave, and humidity. This approach not only allows for a much better prediction of when exactly a storm will hit a certain location, it also generates a statistically unbiased prediction of the wave height. 

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For instance, in this use case one observes the following two aspects: 

• First of all, as the time to decide to evacuate increases, the mean standard deviation becomes positive for both the initial StormGeo forecast as well as its linear calibration. The latter leads to a significant underestimation of the wave height. 
• Secondly both the existing StormGeo forecast as well as the linear extension have a high standard deviation further complicating a confident decision to evacuate. 

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Compared to the existing wave height forecasts, Tangent halves the error margin from 4 to 2 meters. By eliminating bias and offering more accurate predictions, Tangent's technology ensures that decisions regarding offshore platform evacuations are based on the most reliable information available.

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Transform your Storm Readiness by Tomorrow

The implementation of our AI technology has been a game-changer. Imagine gaining a 30% increase in confidence knowing whether your offshore facility will be hit by a storm of a size that will impact the safety of your people and operations 1 week in advance, coupled with a 60% improvement in predicting the exact timing and duration of the storm. 

This is how we are currently helping one of the largest oil & gas companies on the planet. And it was so easy to implement that you could have your storm forecasts optimized in real-time by tomorrow. 

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Redefining Safety Standards while Reducing Costs

AI is not just improving storm forecasts; it has the potential to redefine the standards of safety, reliability, and efficiency in the oil and gas industry. By harnessing the power of our dedicated AI designed for Time Series predictive analytics, we are helping one of the largest oil & gas companies on the planet navigate the challenges of extreme weather impact with confidence, safeguarding both their financial interests and their most valuable asset: their people.

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Let’s explore how we can elevate your storm readiness. Schedule a meeting here to discuss.